Monthly Commentary | June 23

May was generally a struggle across asset classes, particularly equities. The key question remains how much economic pain is already in the pipeline because of the monetary tightening undertaken. 

Although the pace of further rate hikes looks likely to moderate (or even stop), measures of money supply in the US continue to show a marked contraction (with M2 down 4.6% year-on-year in April’s reading). Bond yields also reflect
this uncertainty, with the yield on US 10-year debt hovering in a relatively tight range. Equity markets continued to grind higher in May, led once again by the sectors that drove gains seen in Q1.

Market leadership has continued to narrow, with the technology sector powering ahead as excitement built around Artificial Intelligence and its potential applications. Mega cap stocks once again significantly outperformed small and midsize peers during the month as a result.

The economic picture looks less encouraging in other parts of the world. China is causing increasing concern as the country’s economy has emerged from the disruption caused by COVID-19 more slowly than many had expected. There have been no major stimulus packages announced by the central Government and confidence in the country’s crucial property sector remains fragile – as evidenced by the continuing decline in land sales. Consumer confidence has risen off the lows seen during 2022 but remains well below levels seen for much of the previous decade.